RESEARCH NOTEAUTHORS · Delaida Muminovic · Simulation study · 2026

Predictive Heating with Model-Predictive Control

A building simulation that compares thermostat control with constrained receding-horizon MPC under weather and model uncertainty.

The project models a building as a two-state resistance-capacitance system and compares a conventional thermostat with a constrained receding-horizon controller. The controller plans ahead using a short weather horizon while respecting actuator and comfort constraints.

The evaluation is designed around repeated stochastic scenarios rather than a single attractive trace: weather, coefficient of performance, solar input, disturbance assumptions, sensitivity, ablations, confidence intervals, and statistical comparisons all remain visible in the project structure.